Damsgaard E M, Frøland A, Green A, Hauge M
Scand J Soc Med. 1984;12(3):115-20. doi: 10.1177/140349488401200304.
Sampling methods hitherto used in epidemiological surveys have generally faced two major sorts of potential bias: a latent period between listing and testing of listed individuals which can cause a misrepresentation of the population under study, compared with the population basis; population migration and death during the study period, which may result in a discrepancy between the population selected for study and the part of the population examined. A Central Population Register, found in all Scandinavian countries, permits an evaluation of the size of these problems of bias and makes it possible to use an alternative sampling method based on test samples successively drawn from the actual dynamic population. The feasibility of this new approach was tested in an epidemiological survey of diabetes mellitus among individuals in the age group 60-74 years living in a Danish municipality (Fredericia). It is concluded that this alternative dynamic method produces a more representative study population with less bias, thanks to the smaller number of deaths and migration among non-responders during the study, than do the methods previously used. Furthermore, the length of the study period, the size of the test samples, as well as the intervals between selecting samples may be adjusted to the capacity available, thus reducing the resources required. By using a correction in the computer program for selecting test sample size, the sex and age profile of the whole study population may be chosen in accordance with the incidence of the disease studied. In the Scandinavian countries a unique possibility exists to carry out prevalence studies on all kinds of diseases by the method described and evaluated here.
迄今为止，流行病学调查中使用的抽样方法一般面临两种主要的潜在偏差：在列出被调查个体与对其进行检测之间存在的潜伏期，这可能导致与总体基础相比，所研究的人群出现误报情况；研究期间的人口迁移和死亡，这可能导致选定的研究人群与所检测的人群部分之间存在差异。在所有斯堪的纳维亚国家都有的中央人口登记册，能够对这些偏差问题的规模进行评估，并使得基于从实际动态人群中连续抽取的测试样本使用另一种抽样方法成为可能。在丹麦一个自治市（腓特烈西亚）对60至74岁年龄组的个体进行的糖尿病流行病学调查中，对这种新方法的可行性进行了测试。得出的结论是，与先前使用的方法相比，这种替代的动态方法由于在研究期间无应答者中的死亡和迁移人数较少，因而能产生偏差较小、更具代表性的研究人群。此外，研究期的长度、测试样本的大小以及选取样本之间的间隔可以根据可用的能力进行调整，从而减少所需资源。通过在计算机程序中对选择测试样本大小进行校正，可以根据所研究疾病的发病率来选择整个研究人群的性别和年龄分布。在斯堪的纳维亚国家，存在着通过本文所述和评估的方法对各类疾病进行患病率研究的独特可能性。
