Riseley R C, Smith A H, Laugesen M, Chapman C J
N Z Med J. 1983 Apr 13;96(729):235-8.
Results from a dynamic computer model of rubella vaccination programmes indicate that consideration should be given to vaccinating all one-year-old girls and boys and revaccinating all girls at about 11 years of age, as well as continuing with the programme for susceptible women in the childbearing age group. With vaccine-induced immunity decaying at about 1% annually, the vaccination of 80 to 95% of all one-year-olds, 95% of 11 year old girls, and 5% of women aged 15 to 33 annually is expected to reduce congenital rubella syndrome deformities to less than 5% of the 1980 incidence by 1994, and to negligible levels thereafter. In comparison, continuation of the present scheme may reduce deformities to only 69% of 1980 levels by 1994 with a slow decline to 25% in 2010. (The 1980 levels used were computer generated to eliminate short-term fluctuations, and do not apply to actual figures from that year.) For convenience and better compliance, measles vaccine and the initial rubella vaccine may be given in combined form at 15 months without altering the effect of either. The rate of decay of immunity after vaccination is critically important in congenital rubella syndrome prediction, so that further accurate monitoring of immune status and congenital rubella incidence is essential.
风疹疫苗接种计划的动态计算机模型结果表明，应考虑对所有一岁的女童和男童进行疫苗接种，并对所有约11岁的女童进行再次接种，同时继续对育龄期易感妇女实施该计划。由于疫苗诱导的免疫力每年约以1%的速度衰减，预计每年对所有一岁儿童的80%至95%、11岁女童的95%以及15至33岁妇女的5%进行疫苗接种，到1994年可将先天性风疹综合征畸形发生率降至1980年发病率的5%以下，此后降至可忽略不计的水平。相比之下，继续实施现行方案到1994年可能只能将畸形发生率降至1980年水平的69%，到2010年缓慢降至25%。（所使用的1980年水平是通过计算机生成以消除短期波动，并不适用于该年的实际数据。）为方便起见并提高依从性，麻疹疫苗和首剂风疹疫苗可在15个月时以联合形式接种，而不会改变任何一种疫苗的效果。接种疫苗后免疫力的衰减速度在先天性风疹综合征预测中至关重要，因此进一步准确监测免疫状态和先天性风疹发病率至关重要。
