Collins J A, Garner J B, Wilson E H, Wrixon W, Casper R F
Am J Obstet Gynecol. 1984 Mar 1;148(5):527-32. doi: 10.1016/0002-9378(84)90741-5.
Evaluated were methods of ordering the many possible predictors of infertility outcome. The clinical characteristics of infertile couples were studied with respect to the occurrence of pregnancy during follow-up, by means of the methods of survival analysis. Among 1,297 couples who were infertile for 12 months or more, the cumulative pregnancy rate at 36 months with 95% confidence limits was 49% +/- 4%. The proportional hazards analysis identified three independent predictors of the occurrence of pregnancy from the couple's history (with P values in brackets): a history of pregnancy in the partnership (0.0001); shorter duration of infertility (0.0001); and shorter length of marriage (0.005). The predictors arising from the diagnostic process (with P values in brackets) were: fewer infertility diagnoses (0.0001); a favorable primary clinical diagnosis (0.001); and the presence of any tubal disease, regardless of the primary clinical diagnosis (0.001). The analysis selected an economical set of significant predictor variables and demonstrated that a longer period of contraception was associated with a lower pregnancy rate among infertile couples. Also, three simple questions from the history were nearly equivalent to the entire diagnostic process as predictors of the outcome.
对多种可能的不孕症结局预测因素的排序方法进行了评估。采用生存分析方法，就随访期间的妊娠发生情况，对不孕夫妇的临床特征进行了研究。在1297对不孕12个月及以上的夫妇中，36个月时的累积妊娠率及95%置信区间为49%±4%。比例风险分析从夫妇病史中确定了三个妊娠发生的独立预测因素（括号内为P值）：伴侣关系中有妊娠史（0.0001）；不孕持续时间较短（0.0001）；婚姻长度较短（0.005）。诊断过程中产生的预测因素（括号内为P值）为：不孕诊断较少（0.0001）；原发性临床诊断良好（0.001）；无论原发性临床诊断如何，存在任何输卵管疾病（0.001）。该分析选择了一组经济有效的显著预测变量，并表明较长的避孕期与不孕夫妇较低的妊娠率相关。此外，病史中的三个简单问题作为结局预测因素几乎等同于整个诊断过程。
