Collins J A, Burrows E A, Wilan A R
Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada.
Fertil Steril. 1995 Jul;64(1):22-8.
To estimate the likelihood of live birth and the impact of prognostic factors among untreated infertile couples.
Cohort follow-up study.
Eleven infertility clinics in academic medical centers.
Two thousand one hundred ninety-eight couples with infertility of > 1 year in duration. Untreated months of observations on 873 untreated couples (18,364 months) were combined with observations before the first treatment among 1,325 treated couples (9,761 months).
Diagnostic tests as indicated.
Time to conception for live birth; effect of baseline characteristics estimated by means of proportional hazards analysis.
There were 263 live birth conceptions during 28,125 months of untreated observations. The cumulative rate of conceptions leading to live birth was 14.3% at 12 months. The relevant prognostic factors were pregnancy history, duration of infertility, female partner's age, male defect, endometriosis, and tubal disease. A prediction score based on these factors would be accurate in approximately 62% of cases.
The estimation of live birth among untreated infertile couples is sufficiently accurate to be useful in the clinical management of infertility and in the planning of clinical trials.
评估未经治疗的不孕夫妇的活产可能性及预后因素的影响。
队列随访研究。
学术医疗中心的11家不孕不育诊所。
2198对不孕时间超过1年的夫妇。873对未治疗夫妇（18364个未治疗月）的未治疗观察月数与1325对已治疗夫妇首次治疗前的观察月数（9761个月）合并。
根据需要进行诊断测试。
活产的受孕时间；通过比例风险分析估计基线特征的影响。
在28125个未治疗观察月中有263例活产受孕。12个月时活产受孕的累积率为14.3%。相关的预后因素有妊娠史、不孕时间、女性伴侣年龄、男性缺陷、子宫内膜异位症和输卵管疾病。基于这些因素的预测评分在大约62%的病例中是准确的。
未经治疗的不孕夫妇活产的估计足够准确，可用于不孕症的临床管理和临床试验的规划。
