Freedman R, Freedman D S, Thornton A D
Demography. 1980 Nov;17(4):365-78.
Changing fertility expectations and preferences from 1962 to 1977 are compared with final parity in a longitudinal study. Results are strongly affected by initial parity in 1962. Final parity, 27 percent below expectations for those initially childless, illustrates the effect for couples free to change expectations downward of declining fertility preferences. Changes in expectations early in marriage had a significant long-term effect on final parity, as did early differences between wife's expectations and husband's preferences. unplanned births increased final parity significantly. Religion, education, and income had no systematic relation to the discrepancy between initial expectations and final parity.
在一项纵向研究中，对1962年至1977年生育期望和偏好的变化与最终生育状况进行了比较。结果受到1962年初始生育状况的强烈影响。对于那些最初没有孩子的夫妇来说，最终生育状况比预期低27%，这说明了生育偏好下降时，夫妇可以自由地向下调整期望所产生的影响。婚姻早期期望的变化对最终生育状况有显著的长期影响，妻子的期望与丈夫的偏好之间的早期差异也有同样的影响。意外生育显著增加了最终生育状况。宗教、教育和收入与初始期望和最终生育状况之间的差异没有系统的关系。
