Weinstein N D
J Behav Med. 1982 Dec;5(4):441-60. doi: 10.1007/BF00845372.
In this study, 100 college students compared their own chances of experiencing 45 different health- and life-threatening problems with the chances of their peers. They showed a significant optimistic bias for 34 of these hazards, consistently considering their own chances to be below average. Attempts to account for the amount of bias evoked by different hazards identified perceived controllability, lack of previous experience, and the belief that the problem appears during childhood as factors that tend to increase unrealistic optimism. The investigation also examined the importance of beliefs and emotions as determinants of self-reported interest in adopting precautions to reduce one's risk. It found that: (a) beliefs about risk likelihood, beliefs about risk severity, and worry about the risk all made independent contributions to interest in risk reduction; (b) unrealistic optimism undermined interest in risk reduction indirectly by decreasing worry; and (c) beliefs about risk likelihood and severity were not sufficient to explain the amount of worry expressed about different hazards.
在本研究中，100名大学生将自己经历45种不同的健康和危及生命问题的几率与同龄人进行了比较。他们对其中34种危害表现出显著的乐观偏差，一直认为自己经历这些危害的几率低于平均水平。对不同危害引发的偏差量进行分析后发现，感知到的可控性、缺乏以往经验以及认为问题出现在童年时期这些因素往往会增加不切实际的乐观情绪。该调查还研究了信念和情绪作为自我报告的采取预防措施以降低风险的兴趣的决定因素的重要性。研究发现：（a）对风险可能性的信念、对风险严重性的信念以及对风险的担忧都对降低风险的兴趣有独立的影响；（b）不切实际的乐观情绪通过减少担忧间接削弱了对降低风险的兴趣；（c）对风险可能性和严重性的信念不足以解释对不同危害所表达的担忧程度。
