A prognostic model for clinical stage I melanoma of the lower extremity. Location on foot as independent risk factor for recurrent disease.

Thirteen variables were studied to determine their usefulness in predicting recurrent disease in 158 patients with stage I melanoma of the lower extremity. A Cox proportional hazards analysis demonstrated that three variables were independent risk factors for recurrent disease in these patients: (1) thickness, in millimeters, of the primary tumor (P = 0.000009), (2) primary tumor location on the foot (P = 0.0003), and (3) the number of mitoses/mm2 (P = 0.0244). Life-table analyses of patient subgroups defined by different combinations of these three variables demonstrated that thick (greater than or equal to 3.0 mm) melanomas of the foot were associated with recurrent disease much more frequently than tumors of similar thickness located on the thigh or calf. These data provide guidelines that can be used to evaluate results of surgical and/or adjuvant therapy studies for patients with melanoma of the lower extremity.