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青少年驾驶员卷入致命机动车撞车事故的模式:对政策选择的影响。

Patterns of teenaged driver involvement in fatal motor vehicle crashes: implications for policy choice.

作者信息

Robertson L S

出版信息

J Health Polit Policy Law. 1981 Summer;6(2):303-14. doi: 10.1215/03616878-6-2-303.

Abstract

The failure (sometimes with harmful effects) of many current public policies to reduce fatal motor vehicle crashes of teenaged drivers points up the need to consider a broader range of policy options. This article examines data on 236,205 drivers in fatal crashes, including 19,470 who were less than eighteen years old, for patterns which might suggest or rule out particular options. Adults are seldom in the vehicle when drivers under eighteen crash, but requiring the presence of an adult might increase adult deaths rather than reduce teenage crashes. Identification of risk groups through crash and violation records cannot be very effective because drivers under eighteen in fatal crashes usually have no prior record. Legal precedent regarding minors and the pattern of fatal crash involvement by licensure status and time of day suggest that raising the age of licensure to eighteen or prohibiting driving from 8 p.m. to 4 a.m. by drivers under eighteen would reduce deaths substantially. Since only 52 percent of motorcyclists under eighteen had a valid motorcyclist license, increased enforcement of motorcyclist licensure laws has the potential to reduce motorcyclists' deaths even if present licensing ages are retained.

摘要

许多现行公共政策在减少青少年驾驶员致命机动车事故方面的失败(有时还会产生有害影响)凸显了考虑更广泛政策选择的必要性。本文研究了236,205名涉及致命事故的驾驶员的数据,其中包括19,470名未满18岁的驾驶员,以寻找可能暗示或排除特定选项的模式。18岁以下驾驶员发生事故时,车内很少有成年人,但要求有成年人陪同可能会增加成年人死亡人数,而不是减少青少年事故。通过事故和违规记录来识别风险群体并非十分有效,因为涉及致命事故的18岁以下驾驶员通常没有先前记录。关于未成年人的法律先例以及按执照状态和一天中的时间划分的致命事故参与模式表明,将执照发放年龄提高到18岁或禁止18岁以下驾驶员在晚上8点至凌晨4点驾车,将大幅减少死亡人数。由于18岁以下的摩托车驾驶员中只有52%持有有效的摩托车驾照,即使维持现行的驾照发放年龄,加强对摩托车驾照法律的执行也有可能减少摩托车驾驶员的死亡人数。

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