Kayser K, Burkhardt H U
J Cancer Res Clin Oncol. 1980 Jan;96(1):11-25. doi: 10.1007/BF00412893.
Time independence of the selection of autopsy material of the Institute of Pathology of the University of Heidelberg can be assumed as all factors depending on this selection show a remarkable steadiness during the period covered: The mean age of death of patients on whom an autopsy was performed and was not performed is the same, the sex ratio remains unchanged, the number of persons who died in the Heidelberg area has decreased only slightly, and the percentage of dead patients with last residence in this area that were autopsied also remains unchanged. By documenting all pathoanatomic diseases without separating the cause of death, the crude and age-specific incidence of lung, colon, breast, and gastric cancer can be estimated from the beginning of this century up to the present time. The data given in this paper show a decrease of the risk of gastric cancer at younger ages, a quite steady risk of colon cancer, and a steeply increasing risk of lung and breast cancer. The epidemiologic meaning of these data is discussed briefly.
海德堡大学病理学研究所尸检材料选择的时间独立性是可以假定的,因为所有取决于该选择的因素在涵盖的时间段内都表现出显著的稳定性:进行尸检和未进行尸检的患者的平均死亡年龄相同,性别比例保持不变,海德堡地区死亡人数仅略有下降,在该地区最后居住的死亡患者接受尸检的百分比也保持不变。通过记录所有病理解剖疾病而不区分死亡原因,可以估算出从本世纪初到现在肺癌、结肠癌、乳腺癌和胃癌的粗发病率和年龄别发病率。本文给出的数据显示,年轻时胃癌风险降低,结肠癌风险相当稳定,肺癌和乳腺癌风险急剧上升。这些数据的流行病学意义将简要讨论。