Asano M, Minakata K, Hattori H
Z Rechtsmed. 1980 Jan;84(2):135-44. doi: 10.1007/BF02114582.
Formulas of the estimated likelihood ratio Y/X are derived for cases without mother as well as those without both mother and putative father, by using blood group findings of their relatives. The distribution curves of the relative frequencies of log(Y/X) for these cases are calculated with respect to 10(4) families which are created by a Monte Carlo simulation. The extent of success in the paternity diagnosis is clarified by the statistical analysis based on these distribution curves. According to the above analysis, fairly high chance of success can be obtained in the diagnosis of such ambiguous cases without the plaintive mother and/or the putative father, if there relatives are alive. It is also concluded that the genetic information as to the parents of the deceased person increases the exclusion probability, whereas that as to the spouse and children increases the fraction of log(Y/X) greater than 1 for non-father, corresponding to the fraction where the Essen-Möller value is less than 9%.
通过使用亲属的血型结果,推导了没有母亲以及没有母亲和推定父亲的情况下估计似然比Y/X的公式。针对通过蒙特卡洛模拟创建的10(4)个家庭,计算了这些情况下log(Y/X)相对频率的分布曲线。基于这些分布曲线的统计分析阐明了亲子鉴定成功的程度。根据上述分析,如果有亲属在世,在没有哀怨的母亲和/或推定父亲的此类模糊案件的诊断中,可以获得相当高的成功几率。还得出结论,关于死者父母的遗传信息会增加排除概率,而关于配偶和子女的遗传信息会增加非父亲情况下log(Y/X)大于1的比例,这与埃森-默勒值小于9%的比例相对应。