Fung V A, Barrett J C, Huff J
National Toxicology Program, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA.
Environ Health Perspect. 1995 Jul-Aug;103(7-8):680-3. doi: 10.1289/ehp.95103680.
The selection process for chemicals tested in the rodent carcinogenicity bioassay has been biased toward chemicals suspected of potential carcinogenicity. Results from carcinogenicity bioassays of 400 chemicals tested by the National Cancer Institute/National Toxicology Program (NCI/NTP) were analyzed to determine the dependence of positive results on chemical selection criteria: those suspected of being carcinogenic and those selected based on large volumes produced and widespread exposures. Of these chemicals, 210 (52%) induced carcinogenicity in at least one organ of one sex of one species of the four sex/species groups typically used by NCI/NTP. Only 92 of the 400 chemicals (23%) were positive in two species and thus by international criteria are considered likely to pose a carcinogenic hazard to humans. A total of 267 chemicals (67%) were selected as suspect carcinogens, and 187 (68%) of these were carcinogenic. Suspect chemicals account for 86% of chemicals with at least one positive result and account for 90% of chemicals considered positive in two species. The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) lists only 5 of the 400 chemicals as carcinogenic to humans (group 1) and 10 as probably carcinogenic to humans (group 2A). The majority (80%) of the 133 chemicals selected only on production/exposure considerations were not carcinogenic in animals, even when tested at the maximum tolerated (or minimally toxic) dose. Only 9 (6.8%) were positive in two species, and none is listed in IARC groups 1 or 2A. Thus, on the basis of our analyses we predict that less than 5-10% of the 75,000 chemicals in commercial use might be reasonably anticipated to be carcinogenic to humans.
用于啮齿动物致癌性生物测定的化学物质选择过程一直偏向于那些被怀疑具有潜在致癌性的化学物质。对美国国家癌症研究所/国家毒理学计划（NCI/NTP）测试的400种化学物质的致癌性生物测定结果进行了分析，以确定阳性结果对化学物质选择标准的依赖性：那些被怀疑具有致癌性的物质以及那些基于大量生产和广泛接触而选择的物质。在这些化学物质中，210种（52%）在NCI/NTP通常使用的四个性别/物种组中至少在一个物种的一个性别的一个器官中诱发了致癌性。400种化学物质中只有92种（23%）在两个物种中呈阳性，因此按照国际标准被认为可能对人类构成致癌风险。总共有267种化学物质（67%）被选为可疑致癌物，其中187种（68%）具有致癌性。可疑化学物质占至少有一个阳性结果的化学物质的86%，占在两个物种中被认为呈阳性的化学物质的90%。国际癌症研究机构（IARC）在400种化学物质中仅将5种列为对人类致癌（第1组），10种列为可能对人类致癌（第2A组）。仅基于生产/接触因素选择的133种化学物质中的大多数（80%）在动物中不具有致癌性，即使在最大耐受（或最低毒性）剂量下进行测试也是如此。只有9种（6.8%）在两个物种中呈阳性，且没有一种被列入IARC第1组或第2A组。因此，根据我们的分析，我们预测在75000种商业用途的化学物质中，可能合理预期对人类致癌的不到5%-10%。
