Gay N J, Hesketh L M, Morgan-Capner P, Miller E
Immunisation Division, PHLS Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre, London, UK.
Epidemiol Infect. 1995 Aug;115(1):139-56. doi: 10.1017/s0950268800058209.
Serological surveillance of measles immunity has been carried out in England since 1986/7. Results from sera collected in 1989-91 revealed that the proportion of school age children who were susceptible to measles was increasing, following the introduction of the measles, mumps and rubella vaccination programme in October 1988. Mathematical models are used to interpret these data and determine whether this increasing susceptibility is sufficient to allow a resurgence of disease from the low levels achieved by 1993. The models summarize serological profiles by a single parameter, the reproduction number R, which quantifies the level of herd immunity in the population. Results showed that there was cause for concern over the levels of susceptibility to measles, with an epidemic of over 100,000 cases likely in 1995/6. These predictions are consistent with trends in the incidence and age distribution of measles and have enabled the planning of a major vaccination campaign.
自1986/1987年以来，英国一直在开展麻疹免疫血清学监测。1989 - 1991年采集的血清检测结果显示，自1988年10月引入麻疹、腮腺炎和风疹疫苗接种计划后，易感染麻疹的学龄儿童比例在上升。利用数学模型来解释这些数据，并确定这种易感性增加是否足以使疾病从1993年达到的低水平再次流行。这些模型通过一个单一参数——繁殖数R来总结血清学特征，该参数量化了人群中的群体免疫水平。结果表明，麻疹易感性水平令人担忧，1995/1996年可能会出现超过10万例的疫情。这些预测与麻疹发病率和年龄分布趋势一致，并促成了一项大规模疫苗接种运动的规划。
