Fergusson D M, Horwood L J, Lynskey M T
Department of Psychological Medicine, Christchurch School of Medicine, New Zealand.
J Abnorm Child Psychol. 1995 Jun;23(3):379-96. doi: 10.1007/BF01447563.
The stability of child conduct and oppositional defiant behaviors during the period from 7 to 15 years was studied in a birth cohort of New Zealand children. These data were analyzed using two methods. In the first method the observed state to state changes in childhood behavioral tendencies were analyzed using empirical transition matrices. These results suggested that children classified as cases showed high rates of symptom remission, with approximately 50% of cases being classified as noncases 2 years later. In the second approach the data were analyzed using a latent Markov model which took account of errors of measurement in the classification of children. This analysis suggested the presence of strong continuities in childhood problem behaviors, with only 14% of children showing remission of behavioral problems within a 2-year period. The differences in the estimates yielded by the empirical transition matrices and the latent analyses were explained by the fact that there were relatively high probabilities that children who were cases were misclassified as a result of measurement errors.
在新西兰儿童出生队列中，对7至15岁期间儿童行为及对立违抗行为的稳定性进行了研究。这些数据采用两种方法进行分析。第一种方法是使用经验性转移矩阵分析儿童行为倾向从一个状态到另一个状态的观察变化。这些结果表明，被归类为病例的儿童症状缓解率较高，约50%的病例在两年后被归类为非病例。第二种方法是使用潜在马尔可夫模型分析数据，该模型考虑了儿童分类中的测量误差。该分析表明儿童期问题行为存在很强的连续性，只有14%的儿童在两年内行为问题得到缓解。经验性转移矩阵和潜在分析得出的估计值存在差异，原因是病例儿童因测量误差被误分类的概率相对较高。
