Fergusson D M, Lynskey M T, Horwood L J
Department of Psychological Medicine, Christchurch School of Medicine, New Zealand.
J Abnorm Child Psychol. 1996 Oct;24(5):533-53. doi: 10.1007/BF01670099.
The relationships between disruptive behaviors in middle childhood (7 to 9 years) and conduct disorder in adolescence (14 to 16 years) were studied in a birth cohort of New Zealand children. Latent class analysis suggested strong behavioral continuity, with children showing early disruptive behaviors having odds of adolescent conduct disorder that were over 16 times higher than children who did not display early disruptive behavior. Nonetheless, in the region of 12% of children showed a discontinuous history, with 5% of children showing an early onset of conduct problems and later remission while 7% showed later onset conduct problems. Children showing discontinuous histories of behavior problems came from backgrounds in which levels of risk were intermediate between those of children who showed a persistent pattern of conduct problems and those who were consistently nonproblem children. Peer factors played an influential role in behavioral change in adolescence, with individuals showing late onset of conduct problems having high rates of affiliation with delinquent peers but those showing remission of problem behaviors in adolescence having relatively low rates of such affiliations.
在一组新西兰儿童出生队列中，研究了童年中期（7至9岁）的破坏性行为与青少年期（14至16岁）的品行障碍之间的关系。潜在类别分析表明存在很强的行为连续性，表现出早期破坏性行为的儿童出现青少年品行障碍的几率比未表现出早期破坏性行为的儿童高出16倍以上。尽管如此，仍有12%左右的儿童表现出不连续的行为史，其中5%的儿童早期出现品行问题，后来症状缓解，而7%的儿童后来才出现品行问题。行为问题史不连续的儿童所处背景的风险水平介于持续存在品行问题的儿童和一直没有问题的儿童之间。同伴因素在青少年期的行为变化中发挥了重要作用，那些后来出现品行问题的个体与不良同伴的交往率较高，而那些在青少年期品行问题得到缓解的个体与不良同伴的交往率相对较低。
