Alcohol expectancies and adolescent drinking: differential prediction of frequency, quantity, and intoxication.

Although alcohol expectancies have been shown to be consistently related to drinking and problematic drinking among underage youth, some studies suggest that they are more predictive of quantity than of frequency of drinking. However, this hypothesis has not been formally tested. This study examines the differential prediction hypothesis using a sample of 1,781 high school students from the San Francisco Bay Area. Measures included yearly and monthly frequency of drinking and intoxication and usual quantity consumed per drinking occasion. Alcohol expectancies were measured with 11 items asking about the likelihood that having 2 or 3 whole drinks of alcohol would lead to specific personal consequences. Structural equations analyses indicated that expectancies were better predictors of quantity than of frequency or intoxication. The results also show that positive and negative expectancy subscales were differentially associated with the drinking measures and the patterns were somewhat different for males and females.