Crimmins E M, Hayward M D, Saito Y
Andrus Gerontology Center, University of Southern California, Los Angeles 90089-0191.
Demography. 1994 Feb;31(1):159-75.
This paper demonstrates the consequences of changes in mortality and health transition rates for changes in both health status life expectancy and the prevalence of health problems in the older population. A five-state multistate life table for the mid-1980s provides the baseline for estimating the effect of differing mortality and morbidity schedules. Results show that improving mortality alone implies increases in both the years and the proportion of dependent life; improving morbidity alone reduces both the years and the proportion of dependent life. Improving mortality alone leads to a higher prevalence of dependent individuals in the life table population; improving morbidity alone leads to a lower percentage of individuals with problems in functioning.
本文展示了死亡率和健康转变率的变化对老年人口健康状况预期寿命和健康问题患病率变化的影响。20世纪80年代中期的一个五状态多状态生命表为估计不同死亡率和发病率时间表的影响提供了基线。结果表明,仅改善死亡率意味着依赖生活的年限和比例都会增加;仅改善发病率则会减少依赖生活的年限和比例。仅改善死亡率会导致生命表人群中依赖个体的患病率更高;仅改善发病率会导致功能有问题的个体比例更低。