Gertler P J, Molyneaux J W
RAND, Santa Monica, CA.
Demography. 1994 Feb;31(1):33-63.
This paper examines the contributions of family planning programs, economic development, and women's status to Indonesian fertility decline from 1982 to 1987. Methodologically we unify seemingly conflicting demographic and economic frameworks into a single "structural" proximate-cause model as well as controlling statistically for the targeted (nonrandom) placement of family planning program inputs. The results are consistent with both frameworks: 75% of the fertility decline resulted from increased contraceptive use, but was induced primarily through economic development and improved education and economic opportunities for females. Even so, the dramatic impact of the changes in demand-side factors (education and economic development) on contraceptive use was possible only because there already existed a highly responsive contraceptive supply delivery system.
本文考察了计划生育项目、经济发展和妇女地位对1982年至1987年印度尼西亚生育率下降的贡献。在方法上，我们将看似相互冲突的人口统计学和经济框架统一到一个单一的“结构性”近因模型中，并对计划生育项目投入的目标（非随机）分配进行统计控制。结果与这两个框架均一致：75%的生育率下降是由于避孕药具使用的增加，但主要是通过经济发展以及女性教育和经济机会的改善所导致的。即便如此，需求侧因素（教育和经济发展）变化对避孕药具使用产生的巨大影响之所以成为可能，仅仅是因为已经存在一个反应高度灵敏的避孕药具供应输送系统。
