Bolker B M, Grenfell B T
Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, U.K.
Proc Biol Sci. 1993 Jan 22;251(1330):75-81. doi: 10.1098/rspb.1993.0011.
Measles epidemiology offers a unique perspective on the construction of models to describe the dynamics of ecological systems. Simple models of measles transmission can generate deterministic chaos by various mechanisms. However, incorporating more biological realism into the model, in the form of age structure and realism in the seasonal forcing function, can suppress complex dynamics. Adding stochastic terms to the models restores complex dynamics, but raises new questions about demographic scale and population structure in these models.
麻疹流行病学为构建描述生态系统动态的模型提供了独特视角。简单的麻疹传播模型可通过多种机制产生确定性混沌。然而,以年龄结构和季节性强迫函数中的现实情况的形式,将更多生物学现实纳入模型,可以抑制复杂动态。向模型中添加随机项会恢复复杂动态,但也引发了关于这些模型中的人口规模和人口结构的新问题。