Luostarinen T, Hakulinen T, Pukkala E
Finnish Cancer Registry, Helsinki, Finland.
Int J Epidemiol. 1995 Dec;24(6):1094-9. doi: 10.1093/ije/24.6.1094.
The North Karelia project, a community-based programme for prevention of cardiovascular diseases in North Karelia in 1972-1977, was successful in reducing some major cardiovascular risk factors. It was studied whether changes in the incidence of smoking- or diet-related cancers in North Karelia were different from those in a reference area without a programme.
Poisson age-period-cohort-county regression models were fitted to each cancer-sex combination. Specially designed variables were added to the best models to detect any post-programme changes in the incidence trend in North Karelia.
After having been consistently higher, the incidence of lung cancer among males in North Karelia decreased below that of the reference county during 1987-1991. The programme-related risk ratio in 1987-1991 indicated a significant 20% beneficial effect. The trend in stomach cancer among males was more favourable in the reference county than in North Karelia.
The quicker reduction in smoking may have caused the more favourable trend of lung cancer among North Karelian males than males in the reference county.
北卡累利阿项目是1972年至1977年在北卡累利阿开展的一项基于社区的心血管疾病预防项目，在降低一些主要心血管危险因素方面取得了成功。研究了北卡累利阿与吸烟或饮食相关癌症的发病率变化是否与未开展该项目的参考地区不同。
对每种癌症-性别组合拟合泊松年龄-时期-队列-县回归模型。在最佳模型中添加了专门设计的变量，以检测北卡累利阿发病率趋势在项目实施后的任何变化。
北卡累利阿男性肺癌发病率一直较高，之后在1987年至1991年期间降至参考县以下。1987年至1991年与项目相关的风险比显示出20%的显著有益效果。参考县男性胃癌的发病趋势比北卡累利阿更有利。
吸烟率更快的下降可能导致北卡累利阿男性肺癌的发病趋势比参考县男性更有利。
