Clark R E
Department of Surgery, Medical College of Pennsylvania, Pittsburgh 15212, USA.
Ann Thorac Surg. 1996 Nov;62(5 Suppl):S2-5; discussion S31-2. doi: 10.1016/0003-4975(96)00818-1.
Various approaches to the calculation of medical risk are reviewed, including univariate analysis, additive methods, use of Bayes' theorem by The Society of Thoracic Surgeons, logistic regression, and neural networks. Strengths and weaknesses of the various approaches are evaluated. The use and importance of observed/expected ratios, the C statistic, and receiver operating curves are discussed. Specific requirements for the building of useful risk-calculation models are discussed, including the importance of the model set/test set method and the role of both numbers of patients and time frames in model building.
本文综述了多种医学风险计算方法，包括单变量分析、加法方法、胸外科医师协会使用的贝叶斯定理、逻辑回归和神经网络。评估了各种方法的优缺点。讨论了观察/预期比率、C统计量和受试者工作特征曲线的用途及重要性。还讨论了构建有用的风险计算模型的具体要求，包括模型集/测试集方法的重要性以及患者数量和时间框架在模型构建中的作用。
