Edwards F H, Grover F L, Shroyer A L, Schwartz M, Bero J
Division of Cardiothoracic Surgery, University of Florida Health Sciences Center, Jacksonville 32209-6511, USA.
Ann Thorac Surg. 1997 Mar;63(3):903-8. doi: 10.1016/s0003-4975(97)00017-9.
The Society of Thoracic Surgeons National Cardiac Surgery Database has recently completed gathering patient data from 1990 through 1994. Using information from more than 300,000 patients undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting in this period, new risk models of operative mortality were developed.
Logistic regression analysis was used to develop a risk model for each calendar year. A standard "training set/test set" approach was used for each model.
Five validation techniques were used to evaluate the reliability of the risk models. All models were found to predict operative mortality with good accuracy in this population.
The new risk models for isolated coronary artery bypass operations serve as reliable predictors of operative mortality for the most recent harvest of patient data from The Society of Thoracic Surgeons National Cardiac Surgery Database.
胸外科医师协会国家心脏手术数据库最近完成了收集1990年至1994年期间的患者数据工作。利用这一时期30多万例接受单纯冠状动脉搭桥手术患者的信息，开发了新的手术死亡率风险模型。
采用逻辑回归分析为每个日历年建立风险模型。每个模型都采用标准的“训练集/测试集”方法。
使用了五种验证技术来评估风险模型的可靠性。发现所有模型在该人群中预测手术死亡率的准确性良好。
单纯冠状动脉搭桥手术的新风险模型可作为胸外科医师协会国家心脏手术数据库最新收集的患者数据中手术死亡率的可靠预测指标。
