Lefèvre C, Picard P
Institut de Statistique, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Belgique.
Math Biosci. 1996 May;134(1):51-70. doi: 10.1016/0025-5564(95)00107-7.
A number of models have been proposed to describe the spread of infectious diseases of the S-I-R type. Most of them account for variable infectivity levels, and very few incorporate variable susceptibility levels. In the present work, a new epidemic model, called a collective model, is constructed that combines both variabilities in a general way. It is then established how to determine the exact distribution of the final state and the severity of the epidemic when the infection process stops.
已经提出了许多模型来描述S-I-R型传染病的传播。其中大多数模型考虑了可变的感染水平,而很少有模型纳入可变的易感性水平。在本研究中,构建了一种新的流行病模型,称为集体模型,它以一种通用的方式结合了这两种变异性。然后确定了在感染过程停止时如何确定最终状态的精确分布和疫情的严重程度。