Sher Kenneth J, Wood Mark D, Wood Phillip K, Raskin Gail
U Missouri.
J Abnorm Psychol. 1996 Nov;105(4):561-574. doi: 10.1037/0021-843X.105.4.561.
The relation between alcohol outcome expectancies (EXP) and alcohol use was prospectively examined over 3 years in a mixed-gender sample of college students (N = 465) at low and high risk for the development of alcoholism. Alcohol use remained fairly stable over 4 years, but EXP decreased significantly over the course of the study. Structural equation modeling techniques were used to examine reciprocal relations between EXP and alcohol use over 1- and 3-year intervals. Reciprocal prospective effects were demonstrated, but the nature of these effects appears dependent on the interval between measurement periods. Conceptually, these findings indicate both an etiologic role for EXP in predicting future alcohol use, and the influence of alcohol consumption on the development and maintenance of EXP. Methodologically, they point to the importance of the consideration of measurement interval in longitudinal research.
在一个有酗酒高风险和低风险的男女混合大学生样本（N = 465）中，对酒精结果预期（EXP）与酒精使用之间的关系进行了为期3年的前瞻性研究。酒精使用在4年中保持相当稳定，但在研究过程中EXP显著下降。采用结构方程建模技术来检验1年和3年间隔期内EXP与酒精使用之间的相互关系。研究证明了相互的前瞻性影响，但这些影响的性质似乎取决于测量期之间的间隔。从概念上讲，这些发现表明EXP在预测未来酒精使用方面具有病因学作用，以及酒精消费对EXP的发展和维持的影响。从方法论上讲，它们指出了在纵向研究中考虑测量间隔的重要性。
