Meier K J, Licari M J
Department of Political Science, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee 53201, USA.
Am J Public Health. 1997 Jul;87(7):1126-30. doi: 10.2105/ajph.87.7.1126.
This study examines the effectiveness of state and federal taxes in reducing the consumption of cigarettes, estimates the impact of government health warnings, and shows how warnings and taxes interact.
By means of a pooled time-series analysis from 1955 through 1994 with the 50 states as units of analysis, the impact of excise taxes on cigarette consumption for several different models and econometric techniques is assessed.
From 1955 through 1994, increases in state taxes were effective in reducing cigarette use. Federal tax increases, however, appear to have been more effective. This difference is partly the result of the "bootlegging" of cigarettes across state lines and the size of the increases in the federal tax. Cigarette consumption also declined when health warning labels were added.
Increases of taxes on cigarettes are associated with declines in the consumption of tobacco. Because of inflation, increased health concerns, and the declining percentage of smokers, however, large reductions in consumption require large tax increases.
本研究考察了州税和联邦税在减少香烟消费方面的有效性，估计了政府健康警告的影响，并展示了警告和税收是如何相互作用的。
以1955年至1994年的时间序列分析为基础，以50个州作为分析单位，评估了消费税对香烟消费的影响，采用了几种不同的模型和计量经济学技术。
1955年至1994年期间，州税的增加有效地减少了香烟使用。然而，联邦税的增加似乎更有效。这种差异部分是由于香烟跨州“走私”以及联邦税增加幅度的原因。添加健康警告标签后，香烟消费也有所下降。
香烟税的增加与烟草消费的下降有关。然而，由于通货膨胀、对健康的关注度增加以及吸烟者比例的下降，要大幅减少消费需要大幅提高税收。
