Miller T R, Lestina D C, Spicer R S
National Public Services Research Institute, Landover, MD 20785, USA.
Accid Anal Prev. 1998 Mar;30(2):137-50. doi: 10.1016/s0001-4575(97)00093-6.
This paper estimates 1993 U.S. highway crash incidence and costs by driver age, alcohol use, victim age, occupant status, and restraint use. Notable findings are: (1) crash costs of novice drivers are high enough to yield preliminary benefit-cost ratios around 4-8 for a provisional licensing system that restricts driving after midnight and 11 for zero alcohol tolerance for young drivers with violators receiving a 6-month suspension; (2) the costs to people other than the intoxicated driver per mile driven at BACs of 0.08-0.099% exceed the value of driver mobility; (3) the safety costs of drunk driving appear to exceed $5.80 per mile, compared with $2.50 per mile driven at BACs of 0.08-0.099%, and $0.11 per mile driven sober; (4) highway crashes cause an estimated 3.2% of U.S. medical spending, including more than 14% of medical spending for ages 15-24; (5) ignoring crash-involved occupants whose restraint use is unknown, the 13% of occupants who police reported were traveling unrestrained accounted for an estimated 42% of the crash costs; and (6) if these unrestrained occupants buckled up, the medical costs of crashes would decline by an estimated 18% (almost $4 billion annually) and the comprehensive costs by 24%.
本文按驾驶员年龄、饮酒情况、受害者年龄、乘客身份及安全带使用情况估算了1993年美国高速公路撞车事故发生率及成本。显著发现如下:(1) 新手驾驶员的撞车成本足够高,对于限制午夜后驾车的临时驾照制度而言,初步效益成本比约为4至8,对于零酒精容忍度的年轻驾驶员,违规者被吊销驾照6个月的制度效益成本比为11;(2) 血液酒精浓度(BAC)为0.08 - 0.099%时,每英里醉酒驾驶员以外人员的成本超过了驾驶员出行价值;(3) 酒后驾车的安全成本似乎超过每英里5.80美元,相比之下,BAC为0.08 - 0.099%时每英里成本为2.50美元,清醒驾驶时每英里成本为0.11美元;(4) 高速公路撞车事故估计占美国医疗支出的3.2%,其中15 - 24岁人群的医疗支出占比超过14%;(5) 忽略安全带使用情况不明的涉事乘客,警方报告未系安全带的乘客占比13%,但估计承担了42%的撞车成本;(6) 如果这些未系安全带的乘客系上安全带,撞车事故的医疗成本预计将下降18%(每年近40亿美元),综合成本将下降24%。