Zaloshnja Eduard, Miller Ted R, Blincoe Lawrence J
Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation.
Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation and Centre for Population Health Research, Curtin University.
Ann Adv Automot Med. 2013;57:3-12.
This paper estimates total and unit costs of alcohol-involved crashes in the U.S. in 2010. With methods from earlier studies, we estimated costs per crash survivor by MAIS, body part, and fracture/dislocation involvement. We multiplied them times 2010 crash incidence estimates from NHTSA data sets, with adjustments for underreporting of crashes and their alcohol involvement. The unit costs are lifetime costs discounted at 3%. To develop medical costs, we combined 2008 Health Care Utilization Program national data for hospitalizations and ED visits of crash survivors with prior estimates of post-discharge costs. Productivity losses drew on Current Population Survey and American Time Use Survey data. Quality of life losses came from a 2011 AAAM paper and property damage from insurance data. We built a hybrid incidence file comprised of 2008-2010 and 1984-86 NHTSA crash surveillance data, weighted with 2010 General Estimates System weights. Fatality data came from the 2010 FARS. An estimated 12% of 2010 crashes but only 0.9% of miles driven were alcohol-involved (BAC > .05). Alcohol-involved crashes cost an estimated $125 billion. That is 22.5% of the societal cost of all crashes. Alcohol-attributable crashes accounted for an estimated 22.5% of US auto liability insurance payments. Alcohol-involved crashes cost $0.86 per drink. Above the US BAC limit of .08, crash costs were $8.37 per mile driven; 1 in 788 trips resulted in a crash and 1 in 1,016 trips in an arrest. Unit costs for crash survivors by severity are higher for impaired driving than for other crashes. That suggests national aggregate impaired driving cost estimates in other countries are substantial underestimates if they are based on all-crash unit costs.
本文估算了2010年美国涉及酒精的撞车事故的总成本和单位成本。采用早期研究的方法，我们按MAIS、身体部位以及骨折/脱位情况估算了每位撞车事故幸存者的成本。我们将这些成本乘以美国国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）数据集中2010年撞车事故发生率的估算值，并对撞车事故及其酒精关联情况的漏报进行了调整。单位成本是按3%贴现的终身成本。为得出医疗成本，我们将2008年医疗保健利用计划的全国住院和急诊就诊数据与撞车事故幸存者出院后成本的先前估算值相结合。生产力损失利用了当前人口调查和美国时间使用调查的数据。生活质量损失来自2011年美国汽车医学学会（AAAM）的一篇论文，财产损失来自保险数据。我们构建了一个混合发生率文件，该文件由2008 - 2010年以及1984 - 1986年的NHTSA撞车事故监测数据组成，并用2010年一般估计系统权重进行加权。死亡数据来自2010年的致命事故报告系统（FARS）。2010年估计有12%的撞车事故涉及酒精，但涉及酒精的行驶里程仅占总行驶里程的0.9%（血液酒精浓度>0.05）。涉及酒精的撞车事故估计造成了1250亿美元的损失。这占所有撞车事故社会成本的22.5%。酒精导致的撞车事故估计占美国汽车责任保险赔付的22.5%。涉及酒精的撞车事故每杯酒造成的成本为0.86美元。在美国血液酒精浓度限制0.08以上，每行驶一英里撞车事故成本为8.37美元；每788次出行中有1次导致撞车事故，每1016次出行中有1次导致被捕。因驾驶受损导致的撞车事故幸存者按严重程度划分的单位成本高于其他撞车事故。这表明，如果其他国家基于所有撞车事故的单位成本来估算全国总体驾驶受损成本，那么这些估算值会被大幅低估。
