Thompson S C, Armstrong W, Thomas C
Department of Psychology, Pomona College, Claremont, California 91711, USA.
Psychol Bull. 1998 Mar;123(2):143-61. doi: 10.1037/0033-2909.123.2.143.
The illusions of control area is reviewed, and 5 conditions that influence control judgments are identified: skill-related factors, success or failure emphasis, need for the outcome, mood, and the intrusion of reality. It is proposed that individuals use a control heuristic that includes perceptions of intentionality and connection. Judgments of intentionality are based on foreseeability, ability to produce the effect, and valence of the outcome. Judgments of connection are based on the perceived association between the action and the outcome, which includes temporal, shared meaning, and predictive association. Effects of motives to overestimate, underestimate, and have accurate assessments of control are explained, using the concepts of hindsight bias, connection, and counterfactuals. In addition, the relation between the control heuristic and illusory correlation research and applications of the control heuristic to coping with chronic illness are explored.
本文回顾了控制感错觉领域的研究，并确定了影响控制判断的5个条件：与技能相关的因素、对成功或失败的强调、对结果的需求、情绪以及现实的干扰。研究提出，个体使用一种控制启发式方法，其中包括对意向性和关联性的认知。意向性判断基于可预测性、产生效果的能力以及结果的效价。关联性判断基于行动与结果之间的感知关联，这包括时间关联、共同意义和预测性关联。利用后见之明偏差、关联性和反事实等概念，解释了高估、低估和准确评估控制感的动机所产生的影响。此外，还探讨了控制启发式方法与错觉相关研究之间的关系，以及控制启发式方法在应对慢性病方面的应用。
