Simpson R W, Williams G, Petroeschevsky A, Morgan G, Rutherford S
Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Griffith University, Nathan, Queensland, Australia.
Arch Environ Health. 1997 Nov-Dec;52(6):442-54. doi: 10.1080/00039899709602223.
The results of several studies have indicated significant associations between daily mortality and air pollution, with little evidence of a threshold. In the current study, the authors examined daily mortality during the period 1987-1993 for the Brisbane region, which is the fastest-growing urban region in Australia (annual average concentration of particulate matter less than 10 microm in diameter = 27 microg/m3, maximum hourly sulfur dioxide level = 60 ppb, and maximum daily ozone hourly level = 118 ppb). The authors conducted a general estimating equation analysis, and they used autoregressive Poisson models for daily mortality to examine associations with air pollution variables. The authors used research methods developed in the Air Pollution on Health, European Approach (APHEA), project to control confounding effects of weather and temporal trends. The air pollutants examined included particulate pollution (measured by nephelometry [bsp data]), sulfur dioxide, ozone, and nitrogen dioxide. The results indicated that the associations between total daily mortality and particulate levels found in studies in the United States and other countries may be applicable in Brisbane, Australia. Ozone levels were also associated significantly with total daily mortality. There was little evidence of interaction between the ozone effects (mainly in summer) and particulates or with sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide. The associations between pollutants (ozone, bsp) and daily mortality were significant only for individuals who were older than 65 y of age; positive associations were also found with cardiovascular disease categories, and the regression coefficients--when significant--were higher than those for total mortality. The results indicated a possible threshold for ozone levels, but a similar result for particulate levels was not apparent.
多项研究结果表明,每日死亡率与空气污染之间存在显著关联,几乎没有证据表明存在阈值。在本研究中,作者调查了1987年至1993年期间澳大利亚发展最快的城市地区布里斯班的每日死亡率(直径小于10微米的颗粒物年平均浓度 = 27微克/立方米,二氧化硫最高小时浓度 = 60 ppb,臭氧最高每日小时浓度 = 118 ppb)。作者进行了一般估计方程分析,并使用自回归泊松模型来分析每日死亡率,以检验与空气污染变量的关联。作者采用了欧洲健康与空气污染研究项目(APHEA)开发的研究方法,以控制天气和时间趋势的混杂效应。所检测的空气污染物包括颗粒物污染(通过浊度法测量 [bsp数据])、二氧化硫、臭氧和二氧化氮。结果表明,在美国和其他国家的研究中发现的每日总死亡率与颗粒物水平之间的关联可能适用于澳大利亚的布里斯班。臭氧水平也与每日总死亡率显著相关。几乎没有证据表明臭氧效应(主要在夏季)与颗粒物之间或与二氧化硫和二氧化氮之间存在相互作用。污染物(臭氧、bsp)与每日死亡率之间的关联仅在65岁以上的个体中显著;在心血管疾病类别中也发现了正相关,并且回归系数(当显著时)高于总死亡率的回归系数。结果表明臭氧水平可能存在阈值,但颗粒物水平未出现类似结果。