Hoek G, Schwartz J D, Groot B, Eilers P
Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen Agricultural University, The Netherlands.
Arch Environ Health. 1997 Nov-Dec;52(6):455-63. doi: 10.1080/00039899709602224.
The association between daily variations in all-cause mortality from 1983-1991 in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, and ambient air pollution was investigated. Twenty-four-hour average concentrations of total suspended particulates, Black Smoke, ozone, sulfur dioxide, and carbon monoxide were available on a daily basis. Every other day, total iron content in total suspended particulates samples was available. Poisson regression analysis was used to study associations between air pollution and mortality; generalized additive models were used to adjust for confounders (e.g., seasonal trends, weather). Daily mortality was associated most consistently with previous-day concentrations of total suspended particulates (relative risk = 1.05 for a change of 91 microg/m3) and ozone (relative risk = 1.06 for a change of 67 microg/m3). Total iron was associated less consistently with mortality than total suspended particulate mass was. The associations of mortality with ozone and total suspended particulates were independent of sulfur dioxide and carbon monoxide. The relative risks of total suspended particulates and particularly ozone were higher for subjects older than 78 y. The relationship between mortality and ozone did not deviate significantly from linear. The relationship between mortality and total suspended particulates was linear below 100 microg/m3 and leveled off at higher concentrations. If a threshold exists for the effects on mortality of these components, it exists at very low levels.
对荷兰鹿特丹1983 - 1991年全因死亡率的每日变化与环境空气污染之间的关联进行了调查。可获取总悬浮颗粒物、黑烟、臭氧、二氧化硫和一氧化碳的24小时平均浓度的每日数据。每隔一天可获取总悬浮颗粒物样本中的总铁含量。采用泊松回归分析研究空气污染与死亡率之间的关联;使用广义相加模型调整混杂因素(如季节趋势、天气)。每日死亡率与前一天总悬浮颗粒物浓度(每变化91微克/立方米,相对风险 = 1.05)和臭氧浓度(每变化67微克/立方米,相对风险 = 1.06)的关联最为一致。总铁与死亡率的关联不如总悬浮颗粒物质量与死亡率的关联一致。死亡率与臭氧和总悬浮颗粒物的关联独立于二氧化硫和一氧化碳。对于78岁以上的受试者,总悬浮颗粒物尤其是臭氧的相对风险更高。死亡率与臭氧之间的关系与线性关系无显著偏差。死亡率与总悬浮颗粒物之间的关系在100微克/立方米以下呈线性,在更高浓度时趋于平稳。如果这些成分对死亡率的影响存在阈值,那么该阈值处于非常低的水平。