Wingo P A, Ries L A, Parker S L, Heath C W
Epidemiology and Surveillance Research Department, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia 30329-4251, USA.
Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 1998 Apr;7(4):271-82.
Although survival rates are useful for monitoring progress in the early detection and treatment of cancer and are of particular interest to patients with new diagnoses, there are limited population-based estimates of long-term survival rates. We used data collected by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program for cases diagnosed during 1974-1991 and followed through 1992 to estimate relative survival at 5, 10, and 15 years after diagnosis of cancer of the breast, prostate, colon and rectum, and lung. Relative survival after diagnosis of breast and prostate cancer continued to decline up through 15 years after diagnosis, whereas survival after diagnosis of lung and colon or rectal cancer remained approximately constant after 5 and 10 years, respectively. Age-specific patterns of survival varied by site, stage, and demographics. Among patients with localized breast and prostate cancer, women who were younger than age 45 at breast cancer diagnosis and men who were 75 years and older at prostate cancer diagnosis had the poorest relative survival. Relative survival among lung cancer patients decreased with age at diagnosis, regardless of stage or demographics, and age-specific patterns of relative survival for patients with cancer of the colon and rectum differed according to race. Among white patients diagnosed with cancers of the colon and rectum, relative survival did not vary by age at diagnosis; among black patients older than 45 at diagnosis, relative survival decreased with age. This study provides population-based estimates of long-term survival and confirms black/white, male/female, and stage- and age-specific differences for the major cancers.
虽然生存率有助于监测癌症早期检测和治疗的进展情况，且对新确诊的患者尤为重要，但基于人群的长期生存率估计却很有限。我们利用监测、流行病学和最终结果计划收集的数据，对1974年至1991年期间确诊并随访至1992年的乳腺癌、前列腺癌、结肠癌和直肠癌以及肺癌病例，估计其确诊后5年、10年和15年的相对生存率。乳腺癌和前列腺癌确诊后的相对生存率在确诊后15年内持续下降，而肺癌和结肠癌或直肠癌确诊后的生存率在5年和10年后分别保持大致稳定。特定年龄的生存模式因部位、分期和人口统计学特征而异。在患有局限性乳腺癌和前列腺癌的患者中，乳腺癌确诊时年龄小于45岁的女性以及前列腺癌确诊时年龄在75岁及以上的男性相对生存率最差。肺癌患者的相对生存率随确诊年龄增加而下降，与分期或人口统计学特征无关，而结肠癌和直肠癌患者的特定年龄相对生存模式因种族而异。在确诊为结肠癌和直肠癌的白人患者中，相对生存率不因确诊年龄而异；在确诊时年龄大于45岁的黑人患者中，相对生存率随年龄增加而下降。本研究提供了基于人群的长期生存率估计，并证实了主要癌症在黑/白、男/女以及分期和年龄方面的差异。
