Do recorded doses overestimate true doses received by Chernobyl cleanup workers? Results of cytogenetic analyses of Estonian workers by fluorescence in situ hybridization.

Studies of workers who were sent to Chernobyl after the 1986 reactor accident are being conducted to provide a better understanding of the effects of chronic low-dose radiation exposures. A crucial component to these investigations is an accurate assessment of the radiation doses received during the cleanup activities. To provide information on biological measurements of dose, fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) with whole-chromosome painting probes has been applied to quantify stable chromosome aberrations (translocations and insertions) among a defined cohort of 4,833 cleanup workers from Estonia. Cytogenetic analysis of 48-h lymphocyte cultures from 118 Estonian cleanup workers (10.3 cGy mean recorded dose; 25 cGy maximum), 29 Estonian population controls and 21 American controls was conducted by three laboratories. More than 258,000 painted metaphases were evaluated. Overall, we observed lower translocation frequencies than has been reported in previous studies using FISH among Chernobyl cleanup workers. In our data, a clear association with increased levels of translocations was seen with increasing age at blood drawing. There was no correlation, however, between aberration frequency and recorded measurements of physical dose or any category of potential high-dose and high-dose-rate exposure such as being sent to Chernobyl in 1986, working on the roof near the damaged nuclear reactor, working in special zones or having multiple tours. In fact, the translocation frequency was lower among the exposed workers than the controls, though not significantly so. To estimate the level of effect that would have been expected in a population of men having an average dose of approximately 10 cGy, blood from six donors was exposed to low-LET radiation, and more than 32,000 metaphases were scored to estimate dose-response coefficients for radiation-induced translocations in chromosome pairs 1, 2 and 4. Based on these results, we estimate that had this group of 118 men received an average whole-body dose of 10-11 cGy, as chronic or acute exposures, an increase in the mean frequency of chromosome translocations of more than 40-65% would have been observed in their lymphocytes compared to findings in nonirradiated controls. In spite of evaluating more than a quarter of a million metaphases, we were unable to detect any increase in the mean, median or range in chromosome aberrations in lymphocyte cultures from a group of Estonian men who took part in the cleanup of the Chernobyl nuclear power site and those who did not. We conclude that it is likely that recorded doses for these cleanup workers overestimate their average bone marrow doses, perhaps substantially. These results are consistent with several negative studies of cancer incidence in Chernobyl cleanup workers and, if borne out, suggest that future studies may not be sufficiently powerful to detect increases in leukemia or cancer, much less distinguish differences between the effects of chronic compared to brief radiation exposures.