Peterson RS, Owens PD, Tetlock PE, Fan ET, Martorana P
Cornell University
Organ Behav Hum Decis Process. 1998 Feb;73(2/3):272-305. doi: 10.1006/obhd.1998.2763.
This study explored the heuristic value of Janis' (1982) groupthink and vigilant decision making models as explanations of failure and success in top management team decision making using the Organizational Group Dynamics Q-sort (GDQ). Top management teams of seven Fortune 500 companies were examined at two historical junctures-one when the team was successful (defined as satisfying strategic constituencies) and one when the team was unsuccessful. Results strongly supported the notion that a group' decision making process is systematically related to the outcomes experienced by the team. Ideal-type Q-sorts organized around Janis' analysis of groupthink and vigilance were substantially correlated with Q-sorts of failing and successful groups, respectively. The fit was, however, far from perfect. Ideal-type Q-sorts derived from other frameworks correlated better with the failure-success classification than did the Janis-derived ideal types. Successful groups showed some indicators of groupthink (e.g., risk-taking, cohesion, and strong, opinionated leaders), whereas unsuccessful groups showed signs of vigilance (e.g., internal debate to the point of factionalism). The results illustrate the usefulness of the GDQ for developing and empirically testing theory in organizational behavior from historical cases. Copyright 1998 Academic Press.
本研究运用组织群体动力学Q分类法（GDQ），探讨了贾尼斯（1982）的群体思维和审慎决策模型作为高层管理团队决策成败解释的启发价值。研究考察了七家财富500强公司的高层管理团队在两个历史节点的情况——一个是团队成功时（定义为满足战略支持者的需求），另一个是团队失败时。结果有力地支持了这样一种观点，即群体的决策过程与团队所经历的结果存在系统关联。围绕贾尼斯对群体思维和审慎的分析组织起来的理想类型Q分类，分别与失败和成功群体的Q分类显著相关。然而，这种契合远非完美。源自其他框架的理想类型Q分类与成败分类的相关性比源自贾尼斯的理想类型更好。成功群体表现出一些群体思维的指标（如冒险、凝聚力以及强势、固执己见的领导者），而失败群体则表现出审慎的迹象（如内部争论到派系林立的程度）。研究结果说明了GDQ在从历史案例中发展和实证检验组织行为理论方面的有用性。版权所有1998年学术出版社。
