Schoeni R F
RAND, Santa Monica, CA 90407, USA.
Demography. 1998 Aug;35(3):307-13.
The share of the elderly living with an adult child decreased monotonically throughout the twentieth century, while the probability of reaching old age and the number of years lived in old age increased. As a result, the expected number of life-years lived with adult children while in old age may have increased, decreased, or stayed the same. I estimate that the number of life-years lived in old-age coresidence with adult children stayed roughly constant between 1900 and 1940, while the rate of coresidence declined. Life-years lived in old-age coresidence then declined substantially between 1940 and 1990. Moreover, the number of life-years lived in old-age coresidence in 1990 would have been roughly half as great as it actually was had there been no improvements in mortality between 1900 and 1990. And if fertility had remained at its 1900 levels, life-years lived in old-age coresidence would have been about 45% higher in 1990 than it actually was. The results imply that analyses of the change in familial assistance to the elderly should also consider changes in mortality.
整个20世纪,与成年子女同住的老年人比例呈单调下降趋势,而老年人口的存活概率和老年阶段的存活年限则有所增加。因此,老年人在老年阶段与成年子女共同生活的预期寿命年数可能增加、减少或保持不变。我估计,1900年至1940年间,老年人与成年子女共同居住的寿命年数大致保持不变,而共同居住率则有所下降。1940年至1990年间,老年人与成年子女共同居住的寿命年数大幅下降。此外,如果1900年至1990年间死亡率没有改善,1990年老年人与成年子女共同居住的寿命年数大约只有实际数量的一半。而且,如果生育率维持在1900年的水平,1990年老年人与成年子女共同居住的寿命年数将比实际数量高出约45%。研究结果表明,对老年人家庭赡养变化的分析也应考虑死亡率的变化。