Alberdi J C, Díaz J, Montero J C, Mirón I
Centro Universitario de Salud Pública de Madrid, Spain.
Eur J Epidemiol. 1998 Sep;14(6):571-8. doi: 10.1023/a:1007498305075.
Daily mortality displays a seasonal pattern linked to weather, air pollution, photoperiod length, influenza incidence and diet, among which temperature ranks as a leading cause. This study thus sought to assess the relationship between temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and mortality in the Madrid Autonomous Region (Spain) for the period January 1986-December 1992, controlling for the effects of air pollution and influenza incidence. Daily data on maximum, minimum and 24-hour mean temperature, relative humidity and wind speed were matched against daily mortality. Transfer function was identified using the Box-Jenkins pre-whitening method. Multivariate time series regression models were used to control for the confounding effects of air pollution and influenza incidence. Separate seasonal analyses were carried out for winter and summer periods. A J-shaped relationship between outdoor temperature, relative humidity and daily mortality was found. Mortality proved to be inversely related to cold temperature (4- to 11-day lag) and directly related to warm temperature (1-day lag). High relative humidity during summer periods was negatively related to mortality. Thermal variation ascribable to Madrid's mesothermal Mediterranean climate was strongly related to daily mortality, even where air pollution and influenza incidence were controlled for.
每日死亡率呈现出与天气、空气污染、日照时长、流感发病率及饮食相关的季节性模式，其中温度是主要原因之一。因此，本研究旨在评估1986年1月至1992年12月期间西班牙马德里自治区的温度、相对湿度、风速与死亡率之间的关系，并控制空气污染和流感发病率的影响。将每日最高、最低及24小时平均温度、相对湿度和风速数据与每日死亡率进行匹配。使用Box-Jenkins预白化方法确定传递函数。采用多元时间序列回归模型来控制空气污染和流感发病率的混杂效应。分别对冬季和夏季进行了季节性分析。发现室外温度、相对湿度与每日死亡率之间呈J形关系。死亡率被证明与寒冷温度（滞后4至11天）呈负相关，与温暖温度（滞后1天）呈正相关。夏季的高相对湿度与死亡率呈负相关。即使在控制了空气污染和流感发病率的情况下，马德里中温地中海气候导致的温度变化与每日死亡率也密切相关。
