死亡年龄与生存曲线的矩形化：1969 - 1994年瑞士的趋势
Age at death and rectangularisation of the survival curve: trends in Switzerland, 1969-1994.
作者信息
Paccaud F, Sidoti Pinto C, Marazzi A, Mili J
机构信息
Institute for Social and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Lausanne, Switzerland.
出版信息
J Epidemiol Community Health. 1998 Jul;52(7):412-5. doi: 10.1136/jech.52.7.412.
OBJECTIVE
To check if signs of rectangularisation of the survival curve appeared during recent decades in Switzerland--that is, if life expectancy is approaching a maximum with a clustering of age at death around an average value (the so called "compression of mortality").
METHODS
Descriptive analysis of age of death and its trends over 26 years, as characterised by the modal value, median, and various percentiles beyond the median.
POPULATION
All deaths occurring after the 50th birthday in Switzerland between 1969 and 1994 (n = 1,390,362).
MAIN RESULTS
Age at death is increasing at a sustained rate at all percentiles equal or greater than 50, without any slow down in the trend during this period. The increase is more marked among women. Rates of increase are diminishing as the percentiles of age at death are higher, suggesting some clustering of deaths beyond the median value. However, the maximum age at death, if any, seems to be far from the current median values, even for women who enjoy a relatively high median age at death.
目的
检查瑞士近几十年来生存曲线是否出现矩形化迹象——也就是说，预期寿命是否接近最大值，死亡年龄是否聚集在一个平均值周围（即所谓的“死亡率压缩”）。
方法
对26年期间的死亡年龄及其趋势进行描述性分析，以众数、中位数以及中位数以上的各种百分位数为特征。
研究对象
1969年至1994年间瑞士所有50岁生日之后发生的死亡（n = 1,390,362）。
主要结果
在所有等于或大于50的百分位数上，死亡年龄都在持续上升，在此期间趋势没有任何放缓。女性中的增长更为明显。随着死亡年龄百分位数的升高，增长率逐渐降低，这表明在中位数以上存在一些死亡聚集现象。然而，即使对于死亡中位数年龄相对较高的女性来说，最高死亡年龄（如果存在的话）似乎也远高于当前的中位数年龄。
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