Chan M S, Nsowah-Nuamah N N, Adjei S, Wen S T, Hall A, Bundy D A
Wellcome Trust Centre for the Epidemiology of Infectious Disease, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, UK.
Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 1998 Jul-Aug;92(4):386-9. doi: 10.1016/s0035-9203(98)91057-4.
Mathematical models can be used to predict the impact of interventions to control infectious diseases. In this paper, an epidemiological model is used to predict the impact of chemotherapy of school-age children infected with Schistosoma haematobium, in a programme conducted by the Ghana Partnership for Child Development in the Volta Region, Ghana. Existing data were used to validate the predictions of the model, demonstrating convincingly the ability of the model to make correct predictions. Predictions of trends in mean egg count, infection prevalence and prevalence of heavy infection (> 50 eggs/10 mL urine) were then made for the period 1997-1999, and will be compared to the data collected in the programme in the future.
数学模型可用于预测控制传染病干预措施的影响。在本文中，一个流行病学模型被用于预测在加纳儿童发展伙伴关系于加纳沃尔特地区开展的一项计划中，对感染埃及血吸虫的学龄儿童进行化疗的影响。现有数据被用于验证该模型的预测，令人信服地证明了该模型做出正确预测的能力。然后对1997 - 1999年期间平均虫卵计数、感染率和重度感染（>50个虫卵/10毫升尿液）率的趋势进行了预测，并将在未来与该计划中收集的数据进行比较。
