Pierce J P, Gilpin E A, Choi W S
Cancer Prevention and Control Program, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla 92093-0901, USA.
Tob Control. 1999 Spring;8(1):37-44. doi: 10.1136/tc.8.1.37.
Despite public denials, internal tobacco company documents indicate that adolescents have long been the target of cigarette advertising and promotional activities. Recent longitudinal evidence suggests that 34% of new experimentation occurs because of advertising and promotions.
To apportion responsibility for smoking experimentation and future smoking-attributable mortality among major cigarette brands attractive to young people (Camel and Marlboro). DATA SOURCES, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Data were from confirmed never-smoking adolescents (12-17 years old) responding to the 1993 (n = 2659) and 1996 (n = 2779) population-based California Tobacco Surveys.
Adolescents named the brand of their favourite cigarette advertisements and tobacco promotional items. Using these "market shares" and the relative importance of advertising and promotions in encouraging smoking, we estimated how many new experimenters from 1988 to 1998 in the United States can be attributed to Camel and Marlboro. From other data on the natural history of smoking, we projected how many future deaths in the United States can be attributed to each brand.
Although Camel advertisements were favoured more than Marlboro and other brands in 1993 and 1996, the "market share" for promotional items shifted markedly during this period from Camel and other brands towards Marlboro. We estimated that between 1988 and 1998, there will be 7.9 million new experimenters because of tobacco advertising and promotions. This will result in 4.7 million new established smokers: 2.1, 1.2, and 1.4 million due to Camel, Marlboro, and other brands' advertising and promotions, respectively. Of these, 1.2 million will eventually die from smoking-attributable diseases: 520,000 from Camel, 300,000 from Marlboro, and the remainder from other brands.
Our analysis provides a reasonable first estimate at sharing the blame for the long-term health consequences of smoking among the major brands that encourage adolescents to start smoking.
尽管烟草公司公开否认，但内部文件显示，青少年长期以来一直是香烟广告和促销活动的目标群体。近期的纵向研究证据表明，34%的新尝试吸烟行为是由广告和促销活动导致的。
确定对年轻人有吸引力的主要香烟品牌（骆驼和万宝路）在吸烟尝试以及未来吸烟所致死亡中应承担的责任。数据来源、研究背景和参与者：数据来自于对1993年（n = 2659）和1996年（n = 2779）基于加利福尼亚州人口的烟草调查做出回应的已确认从不吸烟的青少年（12至17岁）。
青少年说出了他们最喜欢的香烟广告和烟草促销产品的品牌。利用这些“市场份额”以及广告和促销活动在鼓励吸烟方面的相对重要性，我们估算了1988年至1998年美国有多少新的尝试吸烟者可归因于骆驼和万宝路品牌。根据吸烟自然史的其他数据，我们预测了美国未来各品牌会导致多少人死亡。
尽管1993年和199年骆驼香烟广告比万宝路及其他品牌更受青睐，但在此期间促销产品的“市场份额”从骆驼及其他品牌显著转向了万宝路。我们估计，1988年至1998年期间，由于烟草广告和促销活动将有790万新的尝试吸烟者。这将导致470万新的固定吸烟者：分别有210万、120万和140万归因于骆驼、万宝路和其他品牌的广告和促销活动。其中，120万最终将死于吸烟相关疾病：52万归因于骆驼，30万归因于万宝路，其余归因于其他品牌。
我们的分析为主要鼓励青少年开始吸烟的品牌分担吸烟长期健康后果的责任提供了合理的初步估算。
