Pierce J P, Gilpin E
Cancer Prevention and Control Program, University of California-San Diego Cancer Center, La Jolla 92093-0901, USA.
Am J Public Health. 1996 Feb;86(2):253-6. doi: 10.2105/ajph.86.2.253.
This study estimated the expected smoking duration for young smokers who have started recently. Data from National Health Interview Surveys were combined to model the ages at which smoking prevalence will decline to various percentages of the peak smoking prevalence for each successive birth cohort. Smoking-cessation ages were then estimated for the males and females born from 1975 through 1979. The median cessation age for those in this cohort who start smoking as adolescents is expected to be 33 years for males and 37 years for females. Thus, 50% of these adolescent males may smoke for at least 16 years and 50% of these adolescent females may smoke for at least 20 years, based on a median age of initiation of 16 to 17 years. Despite the decline in the median age of US smokers who quit, these data predict that smoking will be a long-term addiction for many adolescents who start now.
本研究估算了近期开始吸烟的年轻吸烟者的预期吸烟持续时间。结合了国家健康访谈调查的数据，以模拟每个连续出生队列的吸烟流行率下降到峰值吸烟流行率的不同百分比时的年龄。然后估算了1975年至1979年出生的男性和女性的戒烟年龄。预计该队列中青少年开始吸烟的男性的中位戒烟年龄为33岁，女性为37岁。因此，基于开始吸烟的中位年龄为16至17岁，这些青少年男性中有50%可能吸烟至少16年，这些青少年女性中有50%可能吸烟至少20年。尽管美国戒烟者的中位年龄有所下降，但这些数据预测，吸烟对于许多现在开始吸烟的青少年来说将是一种长期成瘾行为。
