Griffe O, Gartner R, Captier G, Brabet M, Baro B, Selloumi D, Otman S
Service des brûlés, hôpital Lapeyronie, 34295 Montpellier, France.
Ann Chir Plast Esthet. 2001 Jun;46(3):167-72. doi: 10.1016/s0294-1260(01)00018-8.
Mortality predictive factors of burned patients are analyzed in a population of 1929 patients by the statistical method of logistic regression. Among the variables studied (total burn skin area, deep burn area, superficial burn area, age, sex, burn location, preexisting disorders), two only, deep burn area and age, have been retained as predictive factors which, when associated, allow to classify 94.47% of the patients in either survival or death group. The prognosis weight of the deep burn area (SBP) is superior to that of the total burn skin area, yet retained in most previous studies. The superficial burn area, the inhalation injuries and the preexisting disorders are not factors determining prognosis. The F equation = e(-6.0061 + (0.0829SBP) + (0.0443%AGE)) resulting of the logistic regression, allows a direct evaluation of the death probability. A simple linear relation can be proposed as score of severity: IG = (2 x %SBP) + age. Below 80, mortality is close to zero, above mortality increases linearly up to 210, reaching 100%. This relation must be handled cautiously when comparing the severity score of two groups of patients, just as any other severity score that uses a linear relation with the burnt area associated or not to age.
采用逻辑回归统计方法，对1929例烧伤患者群体的死亡预测因素进行了分析。在所研究的变量（烧伤总面积、深度烧伤面积、浅度烧伤面积、年龄、性别、烧伤部位、既往疾病）中，只有深度烧伤面积和年龄这两个变量被保留为预测因素，将它们结合起来可以把94.47%的患者分为存活组或死亡组。深度烧伤面积（SBP）的预后权重高于烧伤总面积，而烧伤总面积在大多数先前研究中都被保留。浅度烧伤面积、吸入性损伤和既往疾病不是决定预后的因素。逻辑回归得出的F方程=e^(-6.0061+(0.0829×SBP)+(0.0443×%年龄))，可直接评估死亡概率。可以提出一个简单的线性关系作为严重程度评分：IG=(2×%SBP)+年龄。低于80时，死亡率接近零，高于80时，死亡率随评分线性增加，直至210时达到100%。在比较两组患者的严重程度评分时，必须谨慎对待这种关系，就像任何其他使用与烧伤面积相关或不相关于年龄的线性关系的严重程度评分一样。
