分级驾驶员执照制度对北卡罗来纳州16岁驾驶员车祸的初步影响。
Initial effects of graduated driver licensing on 16-year-old driver crashes in North Carolina.
作者信息
Foss R D, Feaganes J R, Rodgman E A
机构信息
Highway Safety Research Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 730 Airport Rd, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3430, USA.
出版信息
JAMA. 2001 Oct 3;286(13):1588-92. doi: 10.1001/jama.286.13.1588.
CONTEXT
Since 1997, 32 states have enacted graduated driver licensing (GDL) systems to reduce crash rates among young novice drivers.
OBJECTIVE
To determine the initial effect of the North Carolina GDL system on crashes among 16-year-old drivers.
DESIGN, SETTING, AND SUBJECTS: Comparison of population-based North Carolina motor vehicle crash rates before (1996-1997) and after (1999) 16-year-old drivers were licensed under the GDL system. To control for other factors that might have influenced crashes, changes for 16-year-old drivers were compared with those of drivers 25 to 54 years of age. Crashes per licensed driver were also examined.
INTERVENTION
The North Carolina GDL system, enacted December 1, 1997, requires beginning drivers 15 to 17 years of age to hold level 1 licenses, allowing driving only while supervised by a designated adult for a full year; followed by level 2 licensure, allowing unsupervised driving from 5 AM to 9 PM and supervised driving at any time for at least 6 months; and, finally, level 3-a full, unrestricted license.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES
Rates of motor vehicle crashes among 16-year-old drivers in 1996-1997 vs 1999, overall and by crash severity (fatal, injury, and noninjury), time (night vs day), type (single vs multiple vehicle), driver alcohol use, and driving environment (more vs less rural counties).
RESULTS
Crash rates declined sharply for all levels of severity among 16-year-old drivers after the GDL program was implemented. Following GDL, 16-year-old driver crashes were substantially less likely. Comparing 1996 with 1999, fatal crashes declined 57%, from 5 to 2 per 10 000 population (rate ratio [RR], 0.43; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.27-0.70); crashes with no or minor injuries decreased 23%, from 1068 to 826 per 10 000 (RR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.75-0.80). Nighttime crashes were 43% less likely (156 vs 88 per 10 000; RR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.52-0.61) and daytime crashes decreased by 20% (951 vs 764 per 10 000; RR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.78-0.83). Single-vehicle crashes (245 vs 175; RR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.67-0.76) declined somewhat more than multiple-vehicle crashes (866 vs 681; RR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.76-0.81).
CONCLUSION
In its initial years, the North Carolina GDL system produced substantial declines in 16-year-old driver crashes.
背景
自1997年以来，32个州已颁布分级驾驶员执照（GDL）系统，以降低年轻新手驾驶员的撞车率。
目的
确定北卡罗来纳州GDL系统对16岁驾驶员撞车事故的初步影响。
设计、地点和研究对象：比较北卡罗来纳州基于人群的16岁驾驶员在GDL系统下获得执照之前（1996 - 1997年）和之后（1999年）的机动车撞车率。为控制可能影响撞车事故的其他因素，将16岁驾驶员的变化与25至54岁驾驶员的变化进行比较。还检查了每持证驾驶员的撞车事故情况。
干预措施
北卡罗来纳州GDL系统于1997年12月1日颁布，要求15至17岁的初领驾驶员持有1级执照，仅允许在指定成年人监督下驾驶一整年；随后是2级执照，允许在上午5点至晚上9点无监督驾驶，任何时间有监督驾驶至少6个月；最后是3级——完全无限制执照。
主要观察指标
1996 - 1997年与1999年16岁驾驶员的机动车撞车率，按撞车严重程度（致命、受伤和未受伤）、时间（夜间与白天）、类型（单车与多车）、驾驶员饮酒情况以及驾驶环境（农村县较多与较少）分类。
结果
GDL计划实施后，16岁驾驶员所有严重程度级别的撞车率均大幅下降。实施GDL后，16岁驾驶员撞车的可能性大幅降低。将1996年与1999年进行比较，致命撞车事故从每10000人5起降至2起，下降了57%（率比[RR]，0.43；95%置信区间[CI]，0.27 - 0.70）；无伤害或轻伤的撞车事故从每10000人1068起降至826起，下降了23%（RR，0.77；95% CI，0.75 - 0.80）。夜间撞车事故的可能性降低了43%（每10000人156起 vs 88起；RR，0.57；95% CI，0.52 - 0.61），白天撞车事故下降了20%（每10000人951起 vs 764起；RR，0.80；95% CI，0.78 - 0.83）。单车撞车事故（245起 vs 175起；RR，0.71；95% CI，0.67 - 0.76）的下降幅度略大于多车撞车事故（866起 vs 681起；RR，0.79；95% CI，0.76 - 0.81）。
结论
在最初几年，北卡罗来纳州GDL系统使16岁驾驶员的撞车事故大幅减少。
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