Norvell Daniel C, Cummings Peter
Harborview Injury Prevention and Research Center, Seattle, WA 98104, USA.
Am J Epidemiol. 2002 Sep 1;156(5):483-7. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwf081.
The association of helmet use with death in a motorcycle crash can be estimated using matched-pair cohort methods. By estimating effects among naturally matched pairs on the same motorcycle, one can account for potential confounding by motorcycle characteristics, crash characteristics, and other factors that may influence the outcome. The authors used Fatality Analysis Reporting System data, from 1980 through 1998, for motorcycles that crashed with two riders and either the driver or the passenger, or both, died. For their main analysis, the authors estimated the relative risk of death using conditional Poisson regression. The relative risk of death, accounting for the matching on motorcycle and adjusted for age, sex, and seat position, for a helmeted rider compared with an unhelmeted rider was 0.61 (95% confidence interval: 0.54, 0.70). The authors suggest that conditional Poisson regression is useful for the analysis of traffic crash data, where occupants are naturally matched in a vehicle and where crash-related confounders may be difficult or impossible to measure.
可采用配对队列研究方法评估摩托车事故中使用头盔与死亡之间的关联。通过评估同一辆摩托车上自然配对的驾乘人员之间的影响,可将摩托车特征、事故特征以及其他可能影响结果的因素导致的潜在混杂因素考虑在内。作者使用了1980年至1998年的死亡分析报告系统数据,这些数据来自两辆驾乘人员均发生事故且驾驶员或乘客一方或双方死亡的摩托车。在主要分析中,作者使用条件泊松回归估计死亡的相对风险。在考虑摩托车匹配情况并对年龄、性别和座位位置进行调整后,戴头盔驾乘人员与未戴头盔驾乘人员相比,死亡的相对风险为0.61(95%置信区间:0.54,0.70)。作者认为,条件泊松回归对于分析交通事故数据很有用,在这类数据中,车辆内的驾乘人员是自然配对的,且与事故相关的混杂因素可能难以或无法测量。