Sagristano Michael D, Trope Yaacov, Liberman Nira
Department of Psychology, New York University, New York 10003, USA.
J Exp Psychol Gen. 2002 Sep;131(3):364-76. doi: 10.1037//0096-3445.131.3.364.
Four experiments investigated temporal changes in the influence of probability and payoffs on gambling. Using urn draws, the authors found in Experiment I that temporal distance increased the influence of payoffs and decreased the influence of probability on preferences. The authors found in Experiment 2 that in choosing among the more distant gambles, participants offered more reasons dealing with payoffs and fewer reasons dealing with probability. In Experiments 3 and 4, the authors extended the scope of these findings using a card game and a raffle. The results were interpreted in terms of a temporal construal process that highlights the desirability of outcomes in the distant future and the feasibility of attaining the outcomes in the near future.
四项实验研究了概率和收益对赌博影响的时间变化。通过抽签，作者在实验一中发现，时间距离增加了收益的影响，降低了概率对偏好的影响。作者在实验二中发现，在选择距离更远的赌博时，参与者给出的与收益相关的理由更多，与概率相关的理由更少。在实验三和实验四中，作者使用纸牌游戏和抽奖活动扩展了这些发现的范围。结果根据一种时间建构过程进行了解释，该过程强调了遥远未来结果的可取性以及近期实现这些结果的可行性。
