Bédard Michel, Guyatt Gordon H, Stones Michael J, Hirdes John P
Lakehead Psychiatric Hospital, Thunder Bay, Ont., Canada.
Accid Anal Prev. 2002 Nov;34(6):717-27. doi: 10.1016/s0001-4575(01)00072-0.
Several driver, crash, and vehicle characteristics may affect the fatality risk of drivers involved in crashes. To determine the independent contribution of these variables to drivers' fatality risk, we used data from single-vehicle crashes with fixed objects contained in the US Fatal Accident Reporting System. A multivariate logistic regression revealed that the odds ratio (OR) of a fatal injury increased with age, reaching 4.98 (99% confidence interval (CI) = 2.01-12.37) for drivers aged 80 + compared with drivers aged 40-49 years. Female gender (OR = 1.54, 99% CI = 1.35-1.76) and blood alcohol concentration greater than 0.30 (OR = 3.16. 99% CI = 1.96-5.09) were also associated with higher fatality odds. In comparison with front impacts, driver-side impacts doubled the odds of a fatality (OR = 2.26, 99% CI = 1.92-2.65), and speeds in excess of 111 kilometers per hour (kph: 69 mph) prior to or at impact were related to higher fatality odds (OR = 2.64, 99% CI = 1.82-3.83) compared with speeds of less than 56 kph (35 mph). Three-point seatbelts were protective against fatal injuries (OR = 0.46, 99% CI = 0.39-0.53 compared with no belt). These data suggest that increasing seatbelt use, reducing speed, and reducing the number and severity of driver-side impacts may prevent fatalities. The importance of age and gender suggests that the specific safety needs of older drivers and female drivers may need to be addressed separately from those of men and younger drivers.
多个驾驶员、碰撞及车辆特征可能会影响涉事驾驶员的死亡风险。为确定这些变量对驾驶员死亡风险的独立影响，我们使用了美国致命事故报告系统中包含的单车与固定物体碰撞事故的数据。多变量逻辑回归分析显示，致命伤的优势比（OR）随年龄增长而升高，80岁及以上驾驶员的致命伤优势比达到4.98（99%置信区间（CI）=2.01 - 12.37），而40 - 49岁驾驶员的该比值为1。女性（OR = 1.54，99% CI = 1.35 - 1.76）以及血液酒精浓度大于0.30（OR = 3.16，99% CI = 1.96 - 5.09）也与更高的死亡几率相关。与正面碰撞相比，驾驶员侧碰撞使死亡几率翻倍（OR = 2.26，99% CI = 1.92 - 2.65），并且碰撞前或碰撞时速度超过111公里/小时（kph：69英里/小时）与低于56 kph（35英里/小时）的速度相比，与更高的死亡几率相关（OR = 2.64，99% CI = 1.82 - 3.83）。三点式安全带可预防致命伤（与未系安全带相比，OR = 0.46，99% CI = 0.39 - 0.53）。这些数据表明，增加安全带使用、降低车速以及减少驾驶员侧碰撞的数量和严重程度可能预防死亡。年龄和性别的重要性表明老年驾驶员和女性驾驶员的特定安全需求可能需要与男性和年轻驾驶员分开考虑。
