Golikov V Yu, Balonov M I, Jacob P
Institute of Radiation Hygiene, Mira Street 8, 197101 St Petersburg, Russia.
Radiat Environ Biophys. 2002 Sep;41(3):185-93. doi: 10.1007/s00411-002-0167-2. Epub 2002 Sep 7.
An updated version of external dose modeling is presented with reference to the population in Russian areas contaminated due to the Chernobyl accident. An earlier version has been modified by applying a study time interval with a starting point immediately after radionuclide deposition (rather than 4 years after the accident as applied earlier) and by introducing an estimate of individual dose distributions. New input data to the model are the nuclide-specific composition of the deposit, additional data about migration of caesium in soil, time dependence of location factors and uncertainty distributions of all input parameters. Model results (i.e. effective dose-rates and accumulated effective doses) from external exposure for the rural and urban populations in contaminated areas of Russia during 100 years after the accident are presented. Radionuclide contributions to the dose during various time intervals after the accident have been estimated. The model has been validated by measurements of absorbed dose-rate in air during the first 30 days after the accident and by TLD measurements of individual external doses among inhabitants of contaminated rural settlements in the year 1993. Both the measurements and model show that the geometric mean of individual external doses is about 10% lower than the arithmetic mean and the upper bound of the 95% confidence range is larger by a factor of about 2.
本文参考因切尔诺贝利事故而受污染的俄罗斯地区人群，给出了外部剂量建模的更新版本。早期版本已作修改，采用了从放射性核素沉积后立即开始（而非如早期那样从事故发生4年后开始）的研究时间间隔，并引入了个体剂量分布估计。该模型的新输入数据包括沉积物的特定核素组成、铯在土壤中迁移的额外数据、位置因子的时间依赖性以及所有输入参数的不确定性分布。给出了事故发生后100年内俄罗斯受污染地区农村和城市人口外部照射的模型结果（即有效剂量率和累积有效剂量）。还估计了事故后不同时间间隔内核素对剂量的贡献。该模型已通过事故后前30天空气中吸收剂量率的测量以及1993年对受污染农村定居点居民个体外部剂量的热释光剂量计测量进行了验证。测量结果和模型均表明，个体外部剂量的几何平均值比算术平均值低约10%，且95%置信区间的上限约大2倍。
