Shope Jean T, Molnar Lisa J
Transportation Research Institute, University of Michigan, 2901 Baxter Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2105, USA.
J Safety Res. 2003 Jan;34(1):63-9. doi: 10.1016/s0022-4375(02)00080-4.
Seventeen states enacted graduated driver licensing (GDL) programs that were implemented from 1996 through 1999 and for which evaluations are of interest.
We received evaluation results reported for six states for which data were available. Summarizing results is difficult in other than the most global terms because of differences in pre-GDL programs, differences in GDL programs, and differences in evaluation methodology.
All states identified some crash reduction among teen drivers following GDL implementation. This positive effect was observed across different geographic regions, and with different GDL programs. Simple counts are down-fewer teens are experiencing crashes and becoming injured. After calculating crash rates to adjust for changes over time in populations or licensed drivers, reductions generally were still found. Population-adjusted risks of injury/fatal crash involvement of 16-year-old drivers in Florida and Michigan were reduced by 11% and 24%, respectively. Population-adjusted risks of any crash involvement of 16-year-old drivers in Michigan and North Carolina were reduced by 25% and 27%, respectively. Reductions in night (restricted hours) crash risk were impressive in Florida, Michigan, and North Carolina. A comparison state design was only possible in the Florida evaluation, and results showed greater crash reductions under GDL. Change-point analyses of Michigan's crash data trends over time provided additional support of GDL's effectiveness in reducing crashes.
Taken as a whole, and including the preliminary findings from California, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, these reports demonstrate the early effectiveness of GDL in reducing the crash risk of teen drivers. The impact of these studies and others to come will guide future research, practice, and policy.
17个州颁布了分级驾驶员许可（GDL）计划，这些计划于1996年至1999年实施，其评估情况备受关注。
我们收到了6个有可用数据的州所报告的评估结果。由于GDL实施前计划的差异、GDL计划的差异以及评估方法的差异，除了最笼统的表述外，很难总结结果。
所有州都发现GDL实施后青少年驾驶员的撞车事故有所减少。在不同地理区域以及不同的GDL计划中都观察到了这种积极效果。简单计数显示，撞车事故减少了——经历撞车事故并受伤的青少年减少了。在计算撞车率以调整随时间变化的人口或持照驾驶员数量后，通常仍能发现撞车事故减少。佛罗里达州和密歇根州16岁驾驶员受伤/致命撞车事故的人口调整风险分别降低了11%和24%。密歇根州和北卡罗来纳州16岁驾驶员任何撞车事故的人口调整风险分别降低了25%和27%。佛罗里达州、密歇根州和北卡罗来纳州夜间（限制时段）撞车风险的降低令人印象深刻。仅在佛罗里达州的评估中采用了对照州设计，结果显示GDL实施后撞车事故减少得更多。密歇根州撞车数据随时间的变化点分析为GDL在减少撞车事故方面的有效性提供了额外支持。
总体而言，包括来自加利福尼亚州、俄亥俄州和宾夕法尼亚州的初步研究结果，这些报告证明了GDL在降低青少年驾驶员撞车风险方面的早期有效性。这些研究以及后续其他研究的影响将指导未来的研究、实践和政策。
