School of Public Health and the Transportation Research Institute, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
School of Public Health and the Transportation Research Institute, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
Am J Prev Med. 2013 Jul;45(1):9-18. doi: 10.1016/j.amepre.2013.03.005.
Evidence is mixed on the effects of graduated driver licensing (GDL) on motor vehicle crashes involving drivers aged 18 years.
This study examined the effects of GDL on crashes involving drivers aged 18 years in three states: Maryland, where GDL applies to novice drivers of all ages, and Florida and Michigan, where GDL applies only to new drivers aged <18 years. In addition, this study sought to confirm positive effects of GDL among drivers aged 16 and 17 years.
Monthly rates for three levels of crash severity (fatal/disabling injury, nondisabling injury, and possible injury/property damage only [PDO]) for drivers aged 16, 17, and 18 years were calculated using crash records and census data. Data for Maryland spanned 1998 to 2009, for Florida 1990 to 2009, and Michigan 1992 to 2009. GDL's effects on teen driver crashes by age were estimated using time-series analyses, conducted in 2012.
Crash rates for drivers aged 16 and 17 years declined in all three states following implementation or revision of GDL. For drivers aged 18 years, revision of an existing GDL law in Maryland was followed by a 6.9% decrease in possible-injury/PDO crashes; in Michigan, GDL implementation was followed by a 3.6% increase in possible-injury/PDO crashes; and in Florida, GDL had no effect.
GDL led to expected declines in crash rates for drivers aged 16 and 17 years. However, the findings suggest that when GDL applies only to novice drivers aged <18 years, rather than to all novice drivers, crash rates among drivers aged 18 years may increase. In order to potentially extend the safety benefits of GDL, the age at which GDL for new drivers should be applied requires further attention.
有关驾考分级制度（GDL）对 18 岁以下驾驶员发生的机动车事故影响的证据存在差异。
本研究考察了驾考分级制度在三个州（马里兰州、佛罗里达州和密歇根州）对 18 岁以下新驾驶员事故的影响，这些州对所有年龄的新驾驶员和未满 18 岁的新驾驶员都实施了 GDL。此外，本研究还旨在证实 GDL 对 16 岁和 17 岁驾驶员的积极影响。
利用事故记录和人口普查数据，计算了 16 岁、17 岁和 18 岁驾驶员三个严重程度级别的月度事故率（致命/伤残、非伤残和可能伤残/仅财产损失[PDO]）。马里兰州的数据跨度为 1998 年至 2009 年，佛罗里达州为 1990 年至 2009 年，密歇根州为 1992 年至 2009 年。2012 年，采用时间序列分析方法估计了 GDL 对不同年龄青少年驾驶员事故的影响。
在三个州，GDL 的实施或修订后，16 岁和 17 岁驾驶员的事故率均有所下降。对于 18 岁的驾驶员，马里兰州现有 GDL 法律的修订导致可能导致 PDO 损伤的事故减少了 6.9%；在密歇根州，GDL 的实施导致可能导致 PDO 损伤的事故增加了 3.6%；而在佛罗里达州，GDL 没有影响。
GDL 导致 16 岁和 17 岁驾驶员的事故率下降。然而，研究结果表明，当 GDL 仅适用于未满 18 岁的新驾驶员，而不适用于所有新驾驶员时，18 岁驾驶员的事故率可能会增加。为了扩大 GDL 的安全效益，需要进一步关注新驾驶员开始实施 GDL 的年龄。
