Grais Rebecca F, Ellis J Hugh, Glass Gregory E
Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Eur J Epidemiol. 2003;18(11):1065-72. doi: 10.1023/a:1026140019146.
The objective of this research is to explore what would happen if the Hong Kong influenza pandemic strain of 1968-1969 returned in 2000. We report the results of a series of simulations of an SEIR epidemic model coupled with air transportation data for 52 global cities. Preliminary results suggest that if the 1968-1969 pandemic strain returned, it would spread concurrently to cities in both the northern and southern hemispheres thereby exhibiting less of the characteristic seasonal swing. In addition, after recognition of pandemic onset in the focal city, the time lag for public health intervention is very short. These findings highlight the importance of coordinated global surveillance and pandemic planning.
本研究的目的是探究如果1968 - 1969年香港流感大流行毒株于2000年再次出现会发生什么。我们报告了一系列将SEIR流行病模型与52个全球城市的航空运输数据相结合的模拟结果。初步结果表明，如果1968 - 1969年大流行毒株再次出现，它将同时传播到北半球和南半球的城市，从而呈现出较少的典型季节性波动。此外，在疫源城市确认大流行开始后，公共卫生干预的时间滞后非常短。这些发现凸显了全球协调监测和大流行规划的重要性。
