D'Souza Rennie M, Becker Niels G, Hall Gillian, Moodie Keith B A
National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University Canberra, ACT, Australia.
Epidemiology. 2004 Jan;15(1):86-92. doi: 10.1097/01.ede.0000101021.03453.3e.
Foodborne illness is a significant public health issue in most countries, including Australia. We examined the association between temperature and salmonellosis notifications, and compared these associations for 5 Australian cities.
Log-linear models describing monthly salmonellosis notifications in terms of calendar time and monthly average temperatures were fitted over the period 1991 to 2001 for each city. We used a negative binomial chance model to accommodate overdispersion in the counts.
The long-term trend showed an increase in salmonellosis notifications in each of the 5 cities. There was a positive association between monthly salmonellosis notifications and mean monthly temperature of the previous month in every city. Seasonal patterns in salmonellosis notifications were fully explained by changes in temperature.
The strength of the association, the consistency across 5 cities, and a plausible biologic pathway suggest that higher ambient temperatures are a cause of higher salmonellosis notifications. The lag of 1 month suggests that temperature might be more influential earlier in the production process rather than at the food preparation stage. This knowledge can help to guide policy on food preparation and distribution. It also suggests a basis for an early warning system for increased risk from salmonellosis, and raises yet another possible health problem with global warming.
食源性疾病在包括澳大利亚在内的大多数国家都是一个重大的公共卫生问题。我们研究了温度与沙门氏菌病通报之间的关联，并比较了澳大利亚5个城市的这些关联。
针对每个城市，在1991年至2001年期间拟合了以日历时间和月平均温度描述每月沙门氏菌病通报的对数线性模型。我们使用负二项式机会模型来处理计数中的过度离散。
长期趋势显示5个城市中每个城市的沙门氏菌病通报都有所增加。每个城市每月的沙门氏菌病通报与前一个月的月平均温度之间存在正相关。沙门氏菌病通报的季节性模式完全由温度变化来解释。
这种关联的强度、5个城市之间的一致性以及合理的生物学途径表明，较高的环境温度是沙门氏菌病通报增加的一个原因。1个月的滞后表明，温度可能在生产过程的早期比在食品制备阶段更具影响力。这些知识有助于指导食品制备和分销政策。它还为沙门氏菌病风险增加的早期预警系统提供了一个基础，并提出了全球变暖带来的另一个可能的健康问题。
