Gatton Michelle L, Kelly-Hope Louise A, Kay Brian H, Ryan Peter A
Australian Centre for International and Tropical Health and Nutrition, Queensland Institute of Medical Research, Herston, Queensland 4029, Australia.
Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2004 Nov;71(5):629-35.
Ross River virus is the most common vector-borne disease in Australia, with the majority of notifications being in Queensland. This study describes a retrospective spatial analysis of Queensland Ross River virus disease notifications spanning a 10-year period. Notifications were mapped to the local government area (LGA) of the residence of the patient. Ross River virus disease outbreaks within each LGA were detected by applying a Poisson model. Estimates of the seasonal incidence rates indicated wide variation between seasons and LGAs. Positive spatial autocorrelation between LGAs experiencing outbreaks indicated that LGAs within the same region often experience outbreaks at the same time. A hierarchical cluster analysis of the outbreak data was used to group LGAs with similar temporal outbreak patterns. This analysis highlights the variability in Ross River virus disease notification rates across Queensland, and provides a robust method for identifying disease outbreaks.
罗斯河病毒是澳大利亚最常见的媒介传播疾病，大部分病例报告来自昆士兰州。本研究描述了对昆士兰州10年间罗斯河病毒病病例报告的回顾性空间分析。病例报告被映射到患者居住地的地方政府区域（LGA）。通过应用泊松模型检测每个LGA内的罗斯河病毒病疫情。季节性发病率估计表明，不同季节和LGA之间存在很大差异。疫情爆发的LGA之间存在正空间自相关性，这表明同一区域内的LGA经常同时爆发疫情。对疫情数据进行分层聚类分析，以将具有相似时间爆发模式的LGA分组。该分析突出了昆士兰州罗斯河病毒病报告率的变异性，并提供了一种识别疾病爆发的可靠方法。
