Gatton Michelle L, Kay Brian H, Ryan Peter A
Australian Centre for International and Tropical Health and Nutrition, Queensland Institute of Medical Research and The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2005 Jun;72(6):792-9.
Ross River virus (RRV) disease is the most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia, with the majority of cases reported from Queensland. In this study we investigate the relationship between local RRV disease outbreaks and standardized rainfall and temperature data in Queensland. No one set of variables could be found to accurately predict RRV disease outbreaks across all of Queensland, although good predictive models could be developed for smaller regions. The variables identified as important in predicting RRV disease outbreaks differed between regions, and also between summer and autumn. This work highlights the sensitive relationship between virus prevalence, mosquito bionomics, and climate, illustrating that critical climatic factors differ depending on underlying environmental conditions. Identification of factors leading to RRV disease outbreaks will help local authorities identify periods of high risk, optimizing the provision of additional mosquito control measures.
罗斯河病毒（RRV）病是澳大利亚最常见的蚊媒疾病，大多数病例报告来自昆士兰州。在本研究中，我们调查了昆士兰州当地RRV疾病暴发与标准化降雨量和温度数据之间的关系。尽管可以为较小区域开发出良好的预测模型，但未发现一组变量能够准确预测昆士兰州所有地区的RRV疾病暴发。在预测RRV疾病暴发方面被确定为重要的变量在不同地区之间以及夏季和秋季之间存在差异。这项工作突出了病毒流行、蚊子生物学特性和气候之间的敏感关系，表明关键气候因素因潜在环境条件而异。确定导致RRV疾病暴发的因素将有助于地方当局识别高风险时期，优化额外蚊虫控制措施的提供。
