Environmental predictors of Ross River virus disease outbreaks in Queensland, Australia.

Ross River virus (RRV) disease is the most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia, with the majority of cases reported from Queensland. In this study we investigate the relationship between local RRV disease outbreaks and standardized rainfall and temperature data in Queensland. No one set of variables could be found to accurately predict RRV disease outbreaks across all of Queensland, although good predictive models could be developed for smaller regions. The variables identified as important in predicting RRV disease outbreaks differed between regions, and also between summer and autumn. This work highlights the sensitive relationship between virus prevalence, mosquito bionomics, and climate, illustrating that critical climatic factors differ depending on underlying environmental conditions. Identification of factors leading to RRV disease outbreaks will help local authorities identify periods of high risk, optimizing the provision of additional mosquito control measures.